Forecasting for investment desks
Tenth Man Labs is a forecasting company. We estimate the probability of policy and economic events for investment desks, and show the evidence behind every estimate.
How it works
Questions
Every question has a written resolution rule and a deadline, so it is clear what the probability refers to.
Evidence
Our models read the sources and grade how reliable each one is. The probability changes when the evidence does.
History
Every change is dated and kept. You can see what we estimated before the outcome was known.
Every held-out result we publish is preregistered and independently recomputed by a second model family; development numbers are labelled as development.
Question
Will the central bank lower its policy rate at its June meeting?
Resolution rule. Resolves yes if the policy statement issued on 17 June 2026 sets a target rate below the rate in force on 16 June 2026.
Current band
60–65%
Sealed
- Opened
- Resolves
- 25–30%
- 30–35%
- 35–40%
- 40–45%
- 55–60%
- 60–65%
We work with macro, commodity and event-driven teams at hedge funds. New teams start with a free pilot on one recurring decision.
Team
Our team has worked in quantitative trading, large-scale software and machine learning.
Experience from
Contact
Tell us which questions your team needs covered and we will set up a pilot.